FINISHED
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland 1:0: Nations League result and odds
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland finished 1:0 in the Nations League. Before the match we gathered the line of 9 bookmakers and the bets of 14 AI models — below are the analysis, the odds and how the prediction did.
- Referee: Lawrence Visser
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.62AI models' pick · The models split evenly; the option closer to the line was taken
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 6U 2.5odds 1.62ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, Sonar
- 6BTTSodds 1.91DeepSeek, Gemini, Kimi, GLM, Mistral, Xiaomi MiMo
- 11odds 2.62MiniMax
- 1Xodds 3.04Ling 3.0 Flash VL
What the odds were
Over 3 days a Republic of Ireland win drifted from 2.71 to 3.11 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.62 → 1.58 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.62 to 1.58: the market now rates it as more likely.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.37+0.04 | 1.58−0.02 | |
| 2.33+0.03 | 1.60−0.02 | |
| 2.30+0.02 | 1.62 | |
| 2.28−0.05 | 1.62+0.03 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| 2.33−0.01 | 1.59 | |
| 2.34first snapshot | 1.59first snapshot | |
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.62 | ||
All snapshots (14)
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.37 | 1.58 | |
| 2.37 | 1.58 | |
| 2.33 | 1.60 | |
| 2.33 | 1.60 | |
| 2.33 | 1.60 | |
| 2.30 | 1.62 | |
| 2.30 | 1.62 | |
| 2.30 | 1.62 | |
| 2.28 | 1.62 | |
| 2.28 | 1.62 | |
| 2.28 | 1.62 | |
| 2.28 | 1.62 | |
| 2.33 | 1.59 | |
| 2.34 | 1.59 |
How the match went
- 61'on Jack Moylan, off Chiedozie Ogbene
- 66'Jayson Molumby YC
- 68'James Abankwah YC
- 73'on Ermal Krasniqi, off Edon Zhegrova
- 73'on Milot Rashica, off Baton Zabergja
- 80'on Adam Idah, off Troy Parrott
- 80'on Conor Coventry, off James Abankwah
- 83'Vedat Muriqi1:0
- 87'on Erblin Osmani, off Veldin Hodza
- 88'on Fisnik Asllani, off Vedat Muriqi
- 88'on Owen Elding, off John Egan
- 88'on Ryan Manning, off Liam Scales
| Kosovo | stat | Republic of Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | shots | 3 |
| 8 | on target | 1 |
| 57% | possession | 43% |
| 1 | corners | 0 |
| 12 | fouls | 15 |
| 1 | saves | 5 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from the statistics provider API-Football — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Kosovo- 1A. Murić7.0
- 4I. Krasniqi7.1
- 5L. Dellova6.6
- 15M. Vojvoda6.4
- 20V. Hodža6.5
- 10E. Zhegrova6.3
- 13D. Gallapeni6.8
- 21A. Hajdari7.1
- 14B. Zabërgja6.4
- 23L. Avdullahu7.2
- 18V. Muriqi — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 11F. Asllanion 88'7.3
- 12V. Bekaj
- 22M. Jashari
- 17E. Krasniqion 73'7.0
- 8V. Matoshi
- 2R. Raci
- 7M. Rashicaon 73'6.7
- 9A. Rrahmani
- 16A. Saipi
- 6Erblin Osmani
- 19D. Kacuri
- 3M. Avdyli
Republic of Ireland- 1C. Kelleher7.2
- 4D. O'Shea6.9
- 15J. Egan6.5
- 5J. O'Brien6.7
- 3L. Scales5.8
- 6J. Molumby6.1
- 8J. Knight6.4
- 2J. Abankwah6.5
- 11F. Azaz6.6
- 20C. Ogbene6.2
- 7T. Parrott6.4
- 10A. Idahon 80'6.3
- 18R. Manningon 88'6.3
- 17J. Moylanon 61'6.3
- 23M. O’Leary
- 22K. Phillips
- 9T. Cannon
- 16G. Bazunu
- 21R. Vata
- 13J. Bagan
- 14C. Coventryon 80'5.9
- 19O. Eldingon 88'6.0
- 12L. Kitching
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 6 each on under 2.5 goals (won) and on both teams to score (lost). The other 2 chose a bet each: a Kosovo win and a draw. 2 bet on the match result and 12 on goals.
- 6 of 14U 2.5our betodds 1.62ChatGPTClaudeGrokQwenDeepSeek FlashSonarwon
- 6 of 14BTTSodds 1.91DeepSeekGeminiKimiGLMMistralXiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 141odds 2.62MiniMaxwon
- 1 of 14Xodds 3.04Ling 3.0 Flash VLlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 21.09 at 20:13 UTC
There is no recent form to go on for Kosovo or the Republic of Ireland before the opening round, so the odds are the only guide. They point to a near-even contest: 2.62 on the hosts, 2.71 on the visitors and 3.04 on the draw, with nobody standing out as favourite in this Nations League tie. When two sides are this closely matched, neither tends to open up from the first minute, and the market puts the chance of no more than two goals at 58%. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.62.
The odds have not moved at all so far, and team news on the eve of the game could change the picture. There is another way through for the goals too: with so little between these teams, whoever concedes first will have to chase, and then one reply plus something late would be enough to push the total past 2.5 and send the bet down.
Where we could be wrong
- The AI models split evenly: the bet was chosen on price — the one closer to the line.
Bottom line. Our pick: under 2.5 goals.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Kosovo| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Andorrafriendly | H | 3:0 | W |
| 31.05 | Czechiafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 31.03 | TurkeyWorld Cup qualifying | H | 0:1 | L |
| 26.03 | SlovakiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 4:3 | W |
| 18.11 | SwitzerlandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:1xG 0.5–0.5 | D |
| 15.11 | SloveniaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:0xG 0.9–0.3 | W |
Republic of Ireland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.06 | Canadafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 28.05 | Qatarfriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.05 | Grenadafriendly | H | 5:0 | W |
| 31.03 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
| 26.03 | CzechiaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:2 | L |
| 16.11 | HungaryWorld Cup qualifying | A | 3:2xG 2.3–1.2 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Austria | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Kosovo | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
