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Portugal vs Wales 1:0: Nations League result and odds

Portugal vs Wales finished 1:0 in the Nations League. Before the match we gathered the line of 9 bookmakers and the bets of 17 AI models — below are the analysis, the odds and how the prediction did.

Referee: Donatas Rumsas
Nations League, matchday 1 of 6

published 21.09 at 20:13 · updated 24.09 at 22:00 UTC

AI models' pick: Portugal −1.5 handicap

1.70

AI models' pick · 12 of 17 on this bet · 4 more in the same direction

AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results

lost−1.00 units

what these numbers mean

won / lost: The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.

Why this bet All odds

AI models

12H1 (-1.5)odds 1.70ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, MiniMax, Mistral, Nemotron Super, Nemotron Ultra
2H1 (-1)odds 1.34Sonar, Ling 3.0 Flash VL
1U 3.5odds 1.53Claude
1H1 (-2)odds 2.16Xiaomi MiMo
1H1 (-2.5)odds 2.71Dots3-Note

all 17 AI predictions

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 24.09 18:18

result11.150.08X8.122.35216.764.73

total 2.5O1.58U2.28

both to scoreyes1.980.17no1.750.11

double chance1X1.020.02121.080.05X25.351.24

handicapH1 −1.51.70H2 +1.52.12

Over 3 days a Wales win drifted from 12.03 to 16.76 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations

1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
O/U — over/under total goals
H1/H2 — home/away handicap
1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw

Line movementWales 12.03 → 16.76 over 3 days · 19 snapshotsView

The biggest move is a Portugal win: from 1.23 to 1.15.

Portugal1.23 → 1.15Draw5.77 → 8.12Wales12.03 → 16.76

our price: 1 1.32 · X 6.25 · 2 12.50 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
When	Portugal	Draw	Wales
24 Sep · 18:18	1.15−0.02	8.12+0.78	16.76+0.73
24 Sep · 15:20	1.17−0.01	7.34+0.19	16.03+0.04
24 Sep · 09:20	1.18−0.02	7.15+0.51	15.99+1.82
24 Sep · 08:03	1.20−0.01	6.64+0.61	14.17+1.63
22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days
22 Sep · 03:20	1.21−0.02	6.03+0.26	12.54+0.51
21 Sep · 16:36	1.23opened	5.77opened	12.03opened

19 snapshots · the prices changed 5 times

All snapshots (19)

Odds in the 1X2 market, every snapshot
When	Portugal	Draw	Wales
24 Sep · 18:18	1.15	8.12	16.76
24 Sep · 17:10	1.17	7.34	16.03
24 Sep · 16:10	1.17	7.34	16.03
24 Sep · 15:20	1.17	7.34	16.03
24 Sep · 14:10	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 13:10	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 12:10	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 11:10	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 10:10	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 09:20	1.18	7.15	15.99
24 Sep · 08:10	1.20	6.64	14.17
24 Sep · 08:03	1.20	6.64	14.17
22 Sep · 08:10	1.21	6.03	12.54
22 Sep · 03:20	1.21	6.03	12.54
21 Sep · 21:20	1.23	5.77	12.03
21 Sep · 20:10	1.23	5.77	12.03
21 Sep · 19:10	1.23	5.77	12.03
21 Sep · 18:18	1.23	5.77	12.03
21 Sep · 16:36	1.23	5.77	12.03

How the match went

half-time 1:0

match report · 24.09 22:00

22'Joao Felix (Nuno Mendes)1:0
59'goal disallowed (VAR) · Cristiano Ronaldo
63'on Daniel James, off David Brooks
67'on João Palhinha, off Rúben Neves
67'on Gonçalo Ramos, off Cristiano Ronaldo
71'Ben Cabango YC
71'on Chris Mepham, off Ben Cabango
77'on Kieffer Moore, off Lewis Koumas
77'on Sorba Thomas, off Jordan James
78'on Nuno Tavares, off Nuno Mendes
90'on Diogo Dalot, off João Cancelo
90'on João Neves, off Bruno Fernandes

Match stats: Portugal vs Wales
Portugal	stat	Wales
23	shots	5
5	on target	1
61%	possession	39%
10	corners	2
12	fouls	10
0	saves	4
0	yellow cards	1

what these numbers mean

feed rating: The player's match rating from the statistics provider API-Football — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Portugal

formation 4-1-3-2 · manager Jorge Jesus

starting XIfeed rating

1Diogo Costa6.9

19Nuno Mendes7.5
13Renato Veiga7.2
3Rúben Dias7.0
20João Cancelo6.8

21Rúben Neves7.6

8Bruno Fernandes7.1
23Vitinha7.2
18Pedro Neto6.9

7Cristiano Ronaldo6.4
11João Félix — highest feed rating in the match8.2

substitutes

14Francisco Conceição
16Trincão
5Nuno Tavareson 78'6.4
22Samuel Soares
12Rui Silva
10Bernardo Silva
9Gonçalo Ramoson 67'6.8
4Tomás Araújo
2Diogo Daloton 90'0.0
17Rafael Leão
15João Neveson 90'0.0
6João Palhinhaon 67'6.6

Wales

formation 4-3-3 · manager Craig Bellamy

starting XIfeed rating

12D. Ward6.9

15J. Dasilva6.6
4B. Davies6.6
6B. Cabango6.2
3N. Williams6.8

17J. James6.4
22J. Sheehan6.2
5E. Ampadu6.5

11B. Johnson6.0
9L. Koumas6.0
7D. Brooks6.1

substitutes

19S. Thomason 77'6.4
8W. Burns
23J. Colwill
14C. Roberts
16R. Norrington-Davies
13K. Mooreon 77'6.5
2C. Mephamon 71'6.3
21T. King
20D. Jameson 63'6.7
18M. Harris
10L. Cullen
1D. Cornell

12 of 17 AI models bet on Portugal −1.5 — the bet lost. 4 more chose close bets in the same direction: Portugal −1, Portugal −2 and Portugal −2.5. One more bet on under 3.5 goals.

12 of 17H1 (-1.5)our betodds 1.70ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek FlashGLMMiniMaxMistralNemotron SuperNemotron Ultralost
2 of 17H1 (-1)same directionodds 1.34SonarLing 3.0 Flash VLvoid
1 of 17U 3.5odds 1.53Claudewon
1 of 17H1 (-2)same directionodds 2.16Xiaomi MiMolost
1 of 17H1 (-2.5)same directionodds 2.71Dots3-Notelost

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 21.09 at 20:13 UTC

The two sides have met only once, at Euro 2016 in the summer, and Portugal won 2-0 — exactly the kind of scoreline that would land the -1.5 handicap bet. The hosts are strong favourites here: a home win is priced at 1.23, about 76% once the margin is removed, and Wales are barely given a look-in. A Portugal win by two or more goals is rated at 55%, so the market treats it as more likely than not.

The doubt is how Wales set up. In the opening round they are unlikely to push forward, and they may sit deep to defend their goal and take the tempo out of the game. A one-goal Portugal win would not be enough. We're backing the Portugal -1.5 handicap at 1.70 in the Nations League.

Where we could be wrong

Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.

Bottom line. Our pick: Portugal −1.5 handicap.

The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate

Written automatically by kickscore.ai · published 21 September 2026 · updated 24 September 2026 · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches
Head to head
League table

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first

Portugal

Recent matches: Portugal
Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
06.07	SpainWorld Cup	H	0:1xG 0.6–1.7	L
02.07	CroatiaWorld Cup	H	2:1xG 2.2–1.3	W
27.06	ColombiaWorld Cup	A	0:0xG 0.9–1.7	D
23.06	UzbekistanWorld Cup	H	5:0xG 2.6–0.2	W
17.06	Congo DRWorld Cup	H	1:1xG 0.7–0.9	D
10.06	Nigeriafriendly	H	2:1	W

Wales

Recent matches: Wales
Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
06.06	Romaniafriendly	A	1:2	L
02.06	Ghanafriendly	H	1:1xG 1.5–1.8	D
31.03	Northern Irelandfriendly	H	1:1	D
26.03	Bosnia and HerzegovinaWorld Cup qualifying	H	1:1	L
18.11	North MacedoniaWorld Cup qualifying	H	7:1xG 4.6–0.6	W
15.11	LiechtensteinWorld Cup qualifying	A	1:0xG 1.8–0.2	W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Head to head

last 1

1–0–0Portugal wins · draws · Wales wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
Match	Score	Date	Competition
Portugal vs Wales	2:0	06.07.16	Euro

League table

League A, Group 4

League standings: Nations League
#	Team	W-D-L	GF–GA
1	Portugal	0-0-0	0–0
2	Denmark	0-0-0	0–0
3	Norway	0-0-0	0–0
4	Wales	0-0-0	0–0

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right