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Slovenia vs Scotland: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 26 September, Slovenia host Scotland in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.64: 11 of 17 models chose it, 1 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals
1.64AI models' pick · 11 of 17 on this bet · 1 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
the same bet at other prices
what these numbers mean
- safer and riskier
- Safer is the same event, only wider: it also comes in when the main bet does not, so the price is lower. Riskier is the same event, only narrower. We do not consider either option better value than the other: it is one and the same estimate phrased differently, and the price only reflects how widely it is phrased.
AI models
- 11U 2.5 — matches our betodds 1.64ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, MiniMax, Nemotron Ultra
- 1U 3 — matches our betodds 1.31Sonar
- 11Xodds 1.43Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 1X2odds 1.46Dots3-Note
- 1BTTS noodds 1.81Xiaomi MiMo
- 1BTTSodds 1.90Mistral
- 12odds 2.76Nemotron Super
Match odds
Over 4 days a Scotland win drifted from 2.72 to 2.86 — fewer bets on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.64 → 1.64 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Over 2.5 2.24 → 2.25, Under 2.5 1.63 → 1.64.
Price changes
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 · our bet |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25+0.01 | 1.64 | |
| We published under 2.5 goals at 1.64 | ||
| 2.24 | 1.64+0.01 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | ||
| 2.24first snapshot | 1.63first snapshot | |
All snapshots (25)
| When | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.64 | |
| 2.24 | 1.63 | |
| 2.24 | 1.63 |
AI prediction and analysis
11 of 17 AI models went for under 2.5 goals. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: under 3 goals. The other 5 chose a bet each: double chance, 'both to score — no', both teams to score and a Scotland win. 3 are betting on the match result and 14 on goals.
- 11 of 17U 2.5our betodds 1.64ChatGPTClaudeDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxNemotron Ultra - 1 of 17U 3same directionodds 1.31Sonar
- 1 of 171Xodds 1.43Ling 3.0 Flash VL
- 1 of 17X2odds 1.46Dots3-Note
- 1 of 17BTTS noodds 1.81Xiaomi MiMo
- 1 of 17BTTSodds 1.90Mistral
- 1 of 172odds 2.76Nemotron Super
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.09 at 09:24 UTC
The odds barely separate these two in the Nations League: 2.6 for Slovenia, 3.07 for the draw and 2.72 for Scotland. With no strong favourite and the opening round at stake, sides like this usually start carefully, and that is where we are looking — our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.64, a 58% chance by the market's reckoning. The two previous meetings were no shootouts either. Scotland won 1-0 in March 2017, and in October of the same year the teams drew 2-2.
There is no team news from either camp yet, and at the start of a tournament coaches often give fresh attackers a run, which breaks that cautious pattern. An early goal would change the picture too: Slovenia would have to open up at home, and the second half would be far livelier than the first.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Our pick: under 2.5 goals.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Slovenia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Croatiafriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 04.06 | Cyprusfriendly | H | 1:1 | D |
| 31.03 | Montenegrofriendly | A | 3:2 | W |
| 28.03 | Hungaryfriendly | A | 0:1 | L |
| 18.11 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:1xG 2.2–1.0 | D |
| 15.11 | KosovoWorld Cup qualifying | H | 0:2xG 0.3–0.9 | L |
Scotland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.06 | BrazilWorld Cup | H | 0:3xG 1.0–4.3 | L |
| 19.06 | MoroccoWorld Cup | H | 0:1xG 0.5–1.0 | L |
| 14.06 | HaitiWorld Cup | A | 1:0xG 1.1–1.1 | W |
| 06.06 | Boliviafriendly | A | 4:0 | W |
| 30.05 | Curaçaofriendly | H | 4:1 | W |
| 31.03 | Ivory Coastfriendly | H | 0:1 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
0–1–1Slovenia wins · draws · Scotland wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | 2:2 | 08.10.17 | World Cup qualifying |
| Scotland vs Slovenia | 1:0 | 26.03.17 | World Cup qualifying |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 1 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scotland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Switzerland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Slovenia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
