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Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 25 September, Poland host Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is Poland −1 handicap at 2.13: 10 of 17 models chose it, 6 more went in the same direction.
- Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Poland −1 handicap
2.13AI models' pick · 10 of 17 on this bet · 6 more in the same direction
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
AI models
- 10H1 (-1) — matches our betodds 2.13DeepSeek, Grok, Kimi, Qwen, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, Xiaomi MiMo, Dots3-Note, Ling 3.0 Flash VL, Nemotron Ultra
- 51 — matches our betodds 1.66ChatGPT, Gemini, Mistral, Sonar, Nemotron Super
- 1H2 (+1)odds 1.71Claude
- 1H1 (-1.5) — matches our betodds 2.75MiniMax
Match odds
Over 4 days a draw drifted from 3.79 to 4.15 — fewer bets on the draw.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementdraw 3.79 → 4.15 over 4 days · 30 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Poland win: from 1.61 to 1.59.
our price: 1 1.79 · X 4.00 · 2 5.26 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Poland | Draw | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.59−0.01 | 4.15+0.16 | 5.46−0.06 | |
| 1.60−0.05 | 3.99+0.17 | 5.52+0.36 | |
| 1.65 | 3.82+0.06 | 5.16+0.12 | |
| 1.65 | 3.76+0.02 | 5.04+0.04 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74−0.01 | 5.00−0.01 | |
| 1.65−0.01 | 3.75 | 5.01+0.06 | |
| 1.66+0.02 | 3.75+0.01 | 4.95 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | |||
| 1.64+0.03 | 3.74−0.05 | 4.95−0.17 | |
| 1.61opened | 3.79opened | 5.12opened | |
All snapshots (30)
| When | Poland | Draw | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | 4.15 | 5.46 | |
| 1.60 | 3.99 | 5.52 | |
| 1.60 | 3.99 | 5.52 | |
| 1.60 | 3.99 | 5.52 | |
| 1.65 | 3.82 | 5.16 | |
| 1.65 | 3.82 | 5.16 | |
| 1.65 | 3.82 | 5.16 | |
| 1.65 | 3.76 | 5.04 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.74 | 5.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.01 | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.01 | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.01 | |
| 1.66 | 3.75 | 4.95 | |
| 1.66 | 3.75 | 4.95 | |
| 1.66 | 3.75 | 4.95 | |
| 1.64 | 3.74 | 4.95 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 | |
| 1.61 | 3.79 | 5.12 |
AI prediction and analysis
10 of 17 AI models went for Poland −1. 6 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Poland win and Poland −1.5. One more went for Bosnia and Herzegovina +1.
- 10 of 17H1 (-1)our betodds 2.13DeepSeekGrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Note
Ling 3.0 Flash VLNemotron Ultra - 5 of 171same directionodds 1.66ChatGPTGeminiMistralSonarNemotron Super
- 1 of 17H2 (+1)odds 1.71Claude
- 1 of 17H1 (-1.5)same directionodds 2.75MiniMax
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.09 at 09:24 UTC
Poland have won both previous meetings with Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3-0 at home in October 2020, and a month earlier Poland won 2-1 away. The prices still separate the two sides by a distance — 1.66 on the hosts against 4.95 on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with around 56% for a straight Poland win. The -1 handicap at 2.13 is rated at roughly 44%, so a home win by two or more goals looks like a working scenario rather than a rare one, and with their current attack the visitors are unlikely to drag Poland into a long shootout. That is our pick in this Nations League match: Poland on the -1 handicap at 2.13.
The warning sign is in the movement. Over three days the price on Poland drifted from 1.61 to 1.66, and that drift was not in their favour. The first round after the club calendar tends to hurt cohesion, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are quite capable of sitting deep and taking a one-goal defeat home with them — which would not be enough to land the bet.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Our pick: Poland −1 handicap.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Poland| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.06 | Nigeriafriendly | H | 2:2 | D |
| 31.05 | Ukrainefriendly | H | 0:2 | L |
| 31.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | A | 2:3xG 1.4–1.5 | L |
| 26.03 | AlbaniaWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:1 | W |
| 17.11 | MaltaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 3:2xG 1.3–2.1 | W |
| 14.11 | NetherlandsWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:1xG 1.1–1.3 | D |
Bosnia and Herzegovina| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.07 | USAWorld Cup | A | 0:2xG 0.3–0.9 | L |
| 24.06 | QatarWorld Cup | H | 3:1xG 0.7–0.8 | W |
| 18.06 | SwitzerlandWorld Cup | A | 1:4xG 0.2–2.1 | L |
| 12.06 | CanadaWorld Cup | A | 1:1xG 1.0–1.2 | D |
| 06.06 | Panamafriendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 29.05 | North Macedoniafriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Head to head
2–0–0Poland wins · draws · Bosnia and Herzegovina wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3:0 | 14.10.20 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland | 1:2 | 07.09.20 |
- both scored in 1 of the last 2 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 2
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Romania | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
