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Hungary vs Ukraine: Nations League AI prediction and betting pick
On 25 September, Hungary host Ukraine in the Nations League. The AI models' pick is Hungary to win at 2.28: 10 of 17 models chose it.
- Referee: Jarred Gillett
- Nations League, matchday 1 of 6
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Hungary to win
2.28Now 2.41 · 2.28 when published
AI models' pick · 10 of 17 for this bet, 7 for others
AI models' settled picks so far: 3 won · 3 lost · −0.93 units All results
AI models
- 101 — matches our betodds 2.28ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek Flash, GLM, Xiaomi MiMo, Nemotron Super, Nemotron Ultra
- 4U 2.5odds 1.76Claude, Qwen, Mistral, Sonar
- 2BTTSodds 1.81MiniMax, Dots3-Note
- 1H2 (+1.5)odds 1.18Ling 3.0 Flash VL
Match odds
Over 4 days a Hungary win drifted from 2.21 to 2.41 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Hungary: 2.28 → 2.41 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (a Hungary win) has drifted from 2.28 to 2.41: the market now rates it as less likely.
our price: 1 2.44 · X 3.45 · 2 3.33 · where the line pays more, the price is on your side
Price changes
| When | Hungary · our bet | Draw | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41+0.14 | 3.16−0.08 | 3.08−0.20 | |
| 2.27−0.02 | 3.24+0.03 | 3.28+0.13 | |
| 2.29+0.01 | 3.21+0.02 | 3.15+0.03 | |
| 2.28−0.01 | 3.19+0.01 | 3.12+0.03 | |
| 2.29+0.01 | 3.18−0.02 | 3.09−0.02 | |
| 2.28 | 3.20−0.02 | 3.11 | |
| We published a Hungary win at 2.28 | |||
| 2.28+0.05 | 3.22+0.01 | 3.11−0.04 | |
| 22 Sep – 24 Sep · no snapshots for 2 days | |||
| 2.23+0.02 | 3.21 | 3.15−0.03 | |
| 2.21opened | 3.21opened | 3.18opened | |
All snapshots (30)
| When | Hungary | Draw | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | 3.16 | 3.08 | |
| 2.27 | 3.24 | 3.28 | |
| 2.27 | 3.24 | 3.28 | |
| 2.27 | 3.24 | 3.28 | |
| 2.29 | 3.21 | 3.15 | |
| 2.29 | 3.21 | 3.15 | |
| 2.29 | 3.21 | 3.15 | |
| 2.28 | 3.19 | 3.12 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.09 | |
| 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.22 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.22 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.22 | 3.11 | |
| 2.28 | 3.22 | 3.11 | |
| 2.23 | 3.21 | 3.15 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 | |
| 2.21 | 3.21 | 3.18 |
AI prediction and analysis
10 of 17 AI models went for a Hungary win. 4 more went for under 2.5 goals. The other 3 chose other bets: both teams to score and a Ukraine handicap. 11 are betting on the match result and 6 on goals.
- 10 of 171our betodds 2.28ChatGPTDeepSeekGeminiGrokKimiDeepSeek Flash
GLMXiaomi MiMoNemotron SuperNemotron Ultra - 4 of 17U 2.5odds 1.76ClaudeQwenMistralSonar
- 2 of 17BTTSodds 1.81MiniMaxDots3-Note
- 1 of 17H2 (+1.5)odds 1.18Ling 3.0 Flash VL
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 24.09 at 09:24 UTC
Hungary open the new Nations League cycle at home, and the prices say plenty straight away: 2.28 on the hosts against 3.11 on Ukraine. Based on the average odds from nine bookmakers, a Hungary win is rated at 41% — more than the draw and more than an away win taken separately. Those two sit almost level with each other, so there is one favourite here, while the market cannot make up its mind about the second outcome. In an opening fixture, where sides rarely open up, home advantage counts for more than usual.
The move over the last three days is a warning, though: the Magyars have drifted from 2.21 to 2.28, while Ukraine have shortened from 3.18 to 3.11. Add almost a third of the market sitting on the draw, and one goal may not be enough for Hungary in a tight, cagey game. Even so, our pick is a Hungary win at 2.28.
Where we could be wrong
Nothing in our data argues against this bet: neither the vote split nor any estimate on this page points to a different outcome.
Bottom line. Most likely outcome: Hungary to win.
The bet is the option the AI models named most often; the bookmakers' line sits alongside for comparison and plays no part in the choice — how we calculate
Stats and form
Recent matches
Hungary| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.06 | Kazakhstanfriendly | H | 3:1 | W |
| 05.06 | Finlandfriendly | H | 2:1 | W |
| 31.03 | Greecefriendly | H | 0:0 | D |
| 28.03 | Sloveniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 16.11 | Republic of IrelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:3xG 1.2–2.3 | L |
| 13.11 | ArmeniaWorld Cup qualifying | A | 1:0xG 1.3–0.6 | W |
Ukraine| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.06 | Denmarkfriendly | A | 1:2 | L |
| 31.05 | Polandfriendly | A | 2:0 | W |
| 31.03 | Albaniafriendly | H | 1:0 | W |
| 26.03 | SwedenWorld Cup qualifying | H | 1:3 | L |
| 16.11 | IcelandWorld Cup qualifying | H | 2:0xG 1.6–0.6 | W |
| 13.11 | FranceWorld Cup qualifying | A | 0:4xG 0.0–2.7 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hungary | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Ukraine | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Georgia | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0–0 | 0 |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right
